How the San Diego
Padres Could Make their Outfield Defense Passable
The Padres have a new look outfield, but as many have
already written, its defense may make you want to look away, or at the very
least cringe on nearly every ball hit into the air.
In fantasy baseball, the trio of
Justin Upton,
Wil Myers, and
Matt Kemp might seem decent on paper (unless of course
you play in some league that keeps track of defensive statistics, in which
case, you’re weird and need help).
But
it’s a trio that is going to keep Bud Black’s hands full, and he may be the
manager most willing to undertake such an exercise. I mean, just check out
this gem of a game on SB Nation if you want an idea of Bud Black's level of tinkering.
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| Wil Myers has a full no haircuts clause. |
As Dave Cameron
pointed out back in December, the Padres’
outfield has the potential to post some very nice home run totals, while also
posting a very bad UZR.
Justin Upton was
serviceable in leftfield for the Braves last season, posting just a hair under “average”
with a -.09 (per
Fangraphs).
Wil Myers
was slightly above average in rightfield for the Rays with a 1.3 UZR over 674.1
innings.
Unfortunately for Myers, he’ll
be tasked with patrolling a very large centerfield, at least for his home
games, and so his numbers will almost certainly take a big dip.
It’s saying something that his defense is the
least of San Diego’s worries, though, as Matt Kemp, who figures to start in
rightfield for the Friars, posted a cumulative -22.4 UZR between CF, LF, and RF
(although he did manage a -3.0 UZR in right, where he spent just over 40% of
his 1195.2 innings last year).
Rather than pile another article onto the heap that have
already done a good job of explaining how this outfield could go incredibly
wrong, I’d like to take a shot at figuring out ways that could keep the Padres’
offense strong without letting their outfield defense become the laughing stock
of the National League. Here are a few
ideas:
Proactive Rest
This is probably the most obvious idea, but all three
starting outfielders are going to need rest to varying degrees.
That rest will allow Bud Black to slot
Cameron Maybin or
Abraham Almonte into centerfield, where they posted UZRs of
1.1 and 9.7, respectively (
Will Venable also posted a decent 4.4 UZR in ’14 over
the course of 443.1 innings in rightfield, but I can’t imagine benching two of
the three star outfielders, unless it’s late in the game with a lead).
With rest doled out early and often, the
Padres would only have to write a lineup with two of their three starting
outfielders once or twice a week, at the very most.
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| Justin Upton got a boomstick. |
Justin Upton should be the least worrisome of the trio, as
he’s played 130 or more games in every season since ’09 and he only recently
turned 27. Steamer currently projects
him to play in 138 games, which seems in line with both his career norm and the
fact that the Padres have a deep outfield.
Any days he’s given off will allow Myers and Kemp to take the corners,
with Maybin or Almonte slotting in at center.
Wil Myers is coming off a nasty wrist injury, so it will be
interesting to see how strong he is going into the season and how hard the
Padres want to test that wrist throughout the season. Steamer has Myers projected to play 130
games, which I think he can pull off if San Diego is proactive about giving him
rest here and there throughout the season.
He’s also only 24, so unless he’s completely broken already, he should
be able to recover just fine.
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| Kemp's injury history hangs a big shadow. |
The guy that Bud Black and the training staff are going to
have an eye on the most is Matt Kemp. I
think it was a best case scenario that Kemp was able to play in 150 games last
season, given his arduous ’12 and ’13 seasons in which he only played 106 and
73 games, respectively. Steamer projects Kemp to play 128 games, which
seems reasonable given that he just turned 30 and, hopefully, Bud Black looking
to keep him fresh throughout the season anyways. Any days off given to Kemp are going to
bolster the outfield defense significantly (at the cost of offense, of course),
with Myers being able to slide back over to his natural position in right and
having Almonte or Maybin manning center.
But it’s easy to say that the Padres should give their star outfielders
rest to keep them playing all season.
What’s more interesting is figuring out when they should do it. But
more on that in a bit.
Mitigation
The less the ball is put in the air to the Padres’ starting
outfield, the better they’ll look.
Fortunately, San Diego has one of the very best starting pitchers when
it comes to producing groundballs:
Tyson Ross.
Ross was so good at inducing grounders last season, he managed to post
the fourth best GB/FB ratio (2.58) among starting pitchers with a minimum of 90
innings pitched.
That’s incredibly
impressive when you consider that he tossed 195.2 innings last season.
If you’re wondering whether last season’s
numbers are an anomaly, Ross has compiled a 2.06 GB/FB career mark in 469.1
innings of major league work; that’s even more impressive when you compare
those numbers to the league average GB/FB ratio of 1.29 over the past four
seasons.
It’s a given, then, that the Padres starting outfield should
try to be in the game for every one of Ross’ starts, as the ballclub will have the strongest
offense on the field while mitigating their below average defense. What of the rest of the pitching staff?
| Name |
GB/FB |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
IFFB% |
HR/FB |
Pitches |
| Tyson Ross |
2.06 |
19.80% |
54.00% |
26.20% |
9.00% |
9.60% |
7635 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne |
1.8 |
19.00% |
52.10% |
29.00% |
9.50% |
7.10% |
1549 |
| Andrew Cashner |
1.71 |
19.40% |
50.90% |
29.70% |
5.60% |
9.30% |
6371 |
| Josh Johnson |
1.45 |
21.80% |
46.30% |
31.90% |
9.20% |
8.20% |
8543 |
| Robbie Erlin |
1.14 |
26.40% |
39.20% |
34.30% |
10.30% |
9.50% |
1909 |
| Brandon Morrow |
0.97 |
20.00% |
39.40% |
40.60% |
9.10% |
9.60% |
9133 |
| Ian Kennedy |
0.94 |
21.40% |
38.20% |
40.40% |
10.50% |
10.00% |
16465 |
2010-2014 Totals
San Diego needs a big season from
Andrew Cashner, and if he
stays healthy, he’s certainly capable of it.
For his career, he’s been well above average at keeping the ball on the
ground, with a 1.71 GB/FB ratio since his major league debut in ’10.
Odrisamer Despaigne has also been very good
at inducing ground balls, although he’s only tossed 96.1 innings in the
bigs.
Still, his 1.80 GB/FB mark is
promising, but his odd array of pitches make it hard to figure what the future
holds (as Beyond the Box Score pointed out,
he’s throwing a whole lot of Eephus pitches. What.).
Josh Johnson has always
been slightly above average in terms of GB/FB, as evidenced by his 1.45 mark
since ’10, but I think most would agree that cracking 120IP would be a success
given his injury history.
Brandon Morrow
is another guy looking to bounce back, but his 0.97 GB/FB ratio may have the
Padres starting outfield looking to run and hide.
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| Andrew Cashner |
Obviously Bud Black isn’t going to bench Kemp every time
there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound, but judging by their staff there’s one
guy that figures to compile a lot of innings and pose the biggest threat to
their outfield.
The Padres are expecting
Ian Kennedy to accrue between 180 and 210 innings, much as he’s done the past
four seasons.
He’s generally compiled
quality innings, especially with San Diego the past season and a half, but he
tends to pitch to his spacious ballpark.
In 2014, Kennedy posted a GB/FB mark of 1.05, well below the MLB average
of 1.30.
For his career, he’s been even
worse, giving up 0.93 groundballs to every flyball.
It’s on Kennedy’s starts that San Diego
should make a point to bench Kemp.
Not
only would it keep Kemp fresh throughout the season by not having to start
every five days, San Diego’s defense will be bolstered when it needs it the
most.
It would also put Kemp in line
with his projected starts, as Kennedy projects to start 30 games, per
Steamer.
Other Opportunities
to Prioritize Defense
There are ten games in 2015 that the Padres will be able to
make use of the designated hitter, which should give them the best possible
lineup without sacrificing any defense.
Unfortunately, if the Padres are in the race coming down the stretch,
they won’t have the DH luxury, as their last interleague away series is also
their last series before the All-Star Break.
Then of course are the late and close situations in which
the Padres hold a lead, and particularly at a time when the hitter being
replaced is not due up should San Diego relinquish the lead. These last couple of points may seem fairly
obvious, especially given that it’s what most teams tend to do already, but I
think that coupled with proactive rest, particularly when extreme fly ball
pitchers are on the mound, the Padres can come out ahead more often than
not. Or, at the very least, it won’t be
their defensive setup in the outfield that causes them to miss out on October
baseball.
I think San Diego was quite aware when they made the trades
for their new outfielders that they’re not going to get 155+ games out of each
of them. If they have to give them rest
anyways, why not be proactive about it and bolster the defense at the same
time?
Of these five 3TO players, Dunn, Pena, and Branyan are the
trifecta of one tool goodness. Not only
have they graded poorly defensively at first, which is generally considered an
easy position to play (not by me, but by people much more athletically gifted
than me) but they've never consistently hit for a decent average. Burnitz had the benefit of playing the
outfield for his entire career, and so his bat had a lot more value in that he wasn't clogging up first or DH. He also didn't strike out
anywhere near as much as the other sluggers on this list, so putting him on
here may be a bit of a stretch. But he
definitely wasn't paid for his defense or ability to hit for average. Reynolds, meanwhile, has at least graded as league average at
first in his past two seasons.
