San Diego Could Tinker Their Way to a Passable Defense

How the San Diego Padres Could Make their Outfield Defense Passable

The Padres have a new look outfield, but as many have already written, its defense may make you want to look away, or at the very least cringe on nearly every ball hit into the air.  In fantasy baseball, the trio of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp might seem decent on paper (unless of course you play in some league that keeps track of defensive statistics, in which case, you’re weird and need help).  But it’s a trio that is going to keep Bud Black’s hands full, and he may be the manager most willing to undertake such an exercise.  I mean, just check out this gem of a game on SB Nation if you want an idea of Bud Black's level of tinkering.

Wil Myers has a full no haircuts clause.

As Dave Cameron pointed out back in December, the Padres’ outfield has the potential to post some very nice home run totals, while also posting a very bad UZR.  Justin Upton was serviceable in leftfield for the Braves last season, posting just a hair under “average” with a -.09 (per Fangraphs).  Wil Myers was slightly above average in rightfield for the Rays with a 1.3 UZR over 674.1 innings.  Unfortunately for Myers, he’ll be tasked with patrolling a very large centerfield, at least for his home games, and so his numbers will almost certainly take a big dip.  It’s saying something that his defense is the least of San Diego’s worries, though, as Matt Kemp, who figures to start in rightfield for the Friars, posted a cumulative -22.4 UZR between CF, LF, and RF (although he did manage a -3.0 UZR in right, where he spent just over 40% of his 1195.2 innings last year).

Rather than pile another article onto the heap that have already done a good job of explaining how this outfield could go incredibly wrong, I’d like to take a shot at figuring out ways that could keep the Padres’ offense strong without letting their outfield defense become the laughing stock of the National League.  Here are a few ideas:

Proactive Rest

This is probably the most obvious idea, but all three starting outfielders are going to need rest to varying degrees.  That rest will allow Bud Black to slot Cameron Maybin or Abraham Almonte into centerfield, where they posted UZRs of 1.1 and 9.7, respectively (Will Venable also posted a decent 4.4 UZR in ’14 over the course of 443.1 innings in rightfield, but I can’t imagine benching two of the three star outfielders, unless it’s late in the game with a lead).  With rest doled out early and often, the Padres would only have to write a lineup with two of their three starting outfielders once or twice a week, at the very most.

Justin Upton got a boomstick.

Justin Upton should be the least worrisome of the trio, as he’s played 130 or more games in every season since ’09 and he only recently turned 27.  Steamer currently projects him to play in 138 games, which seems in line with both his career norm and the fact that the Padres have a deep outfield.  Any days he’s given off will allow Myers and Kemp to take the corners, with Maybin or Almonte slotting in at center.

Wil Myers is coming off a nasty wrist injury, so it will be interesting to see how strong he is going into the season and how hard the Padres want to test that wrist throughout the season.  Steamer has Myers projected to play 130 games, which I think he can pull off if San Diego is proactive about giving him rest here and there throughout the season.  He’s also only 24, so unless he’s completely broken already, he should be able to recover just fine.

Kemp's injury history hangs a big shadow.

The guy that Bud Black and the training staff are going to have an eye on the most is Matt Kemp.  I think it was a best case scenario that Kemp was able to play in 150 games last season, given his arduous ’12 and ’13 seasons in which he only played 106 and 73 games, respectively.  Steamer projects Kemp to play 128 games, which seems reasonable given that he just turned 30 and, hopefully, Bud Black looking to keep him fresh throughout the season anyways.  Any days off given to Kemp are going to bolster the outfield defense significantly (at the cost of offense, of course), with Myers being able to slide back over to his natural position in right and having Almonte or Maybin manning center.  But it’s easy to say that the Padres should give their star outfielders rest to keep them playing all season.  What’s more interesting is figuring out when they should do it.  But more on that in a bit.

Mitigation

The less the ball is put in the air to the Padres’ starting outfield, the better they’ll look.  Fortunately, San Diego has one of the very best starting pitchers when it comes to producing groundballs: Tyson Ross.  Ross was so good at inducing grounders last season, he managed to post the fourth best GB/FB ratio (2.58) among starting pitchers with a minimum of 90 innings pitched.  That’s incredibly impressive when you consider that he tossed 195.2 innings last season.  If you’re wondering whether last season’s numbers are an anomaly, Ross has compiled a 2.06 GB/FB career mark in 469.1 innings of major league work; that’s even more impressive when you compare those numbers to the league average GB/FB ratio of 1.29 over the past four seasons.

It’s a given, then, that the Padres starting outfield should try to be in the game for every one of Ross’ starts, as the ballclub will have the strongest offense on the field while mitigating their below average defense.  What of the rest of the pitching staff?

Name	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	Pitches
Tyson Ross	2.06	19.80%	54.00%	26.20%	9.00%	9.60%	7635
Odrisamer Despaigne	1.8	19.00%	52.10%	29.00%	9.50%	7.10%	1549
Andrew Cashner	1.71	19.40%	50.90%	29.70%	5.60%	9.30%	6371
Josh Johnson	1.45	21.80%	46.30%	31.90%	9.20%	8.20%	8543
Robbie Erlin	1.14	26.40%	39.20%	34.30%	10.30%	9.50%	1909
Brandon Morrow	0.97	20.00%	39.40%	40.60%	9.10%	9.60%	9133
Ian Kennedy	0.94	21.40%	38.20%	40.40%	10.50%	10.00%	16465

 2010-2014 Totals

San Diego needs a big season from Andrew Cashner, and if he stays healthy, he’s certainly capable of it.  For his career, he’s been well above average at keeping the ball on the ground, with a 1.71 GB/FB ratio since his major league debut in ’10.  Odrisamer Despaigne has also been very good at inducing ground balls, although he’s only tossed 96.1 innings in the bigs.  Still, his 1.80 GB/FB mark is promising, but his odd array of pitches make it hard to figure what the future holds (as Beyond the Box Score pointed out, he’s throwing a whole lot of Eephus pitches. What.).  Josh Johnson has always been slightly above average in terms of GB/FB, as evidenced by his 1.45 mark since ’10, but I think most would agree that cracking 120IP would be a success given his injury history.  Brandon Morrow is another guy looking to bounce back, but his 0.97 GB/FB ratio may have the Padres starting outfield looking to run and hide.

Andrew Cashner

Obviously Bud Black isn’t going to bench Kemp every time there’s a flyball pitcher on the mound, but judging by their staff there’s one guy that figures to compile a lot of innings and pose the biggest threat to their outfield.  The Padres are expecting Ian Kennedy to accrue between 180 and 210 innings, much as he’s done the past four seasons.  He’s generally compiled quality innings, especially with San Diego the past season and a half, but he tends to pitch to his spacious ballpark.  In 2014, Kennedy posted a GB/FB mark of 1.05, well below the MLB average of 1.30.  For his career, he’s been even worse, giving up 0.93 groundballs to every flyball.  It’s on Kennedy’s starts that San Diego should make a point to bench Kemp.  Not only would it keep Kemp fresh throughout the season by not having to start every five days, San Diego’s defense will be bolstered when it needs it the most.  It would also put Kemp in line with his projected starts, as Kennedy projects to start 30 games, per Steamer.  

Other Opportunities to Prioritize Defense

There are ten games in 2015 that the Padres will be able to make use of the designated hitter, which should give them the best possible lineup without sacrificing any defense.  Unfortunately, if the Padres are in the race coming down the stretch, they won’t have the DH luxury, as their last interleague away series is also their last series before the All-Star Break.  

Then of course are the late and close situations in which the Padres hold a lead, and particularly at a time when the hitter being replaced is not due up should San Diego relinquish the lead.  These last couple of points may seem fairly obvious, especially given that it’s what most teams tend to do already, but I think that coupled with proactive rest, particularly when extreme fly ball pitchers are on the mound, the Padres can come out ahead more often than not.  Or, at the very least, it won’t be their defensive setup in the outfield that causes them to miss out on October baseball.

I think San Diego was quite aware when they made the trades for their new outfielders that they’re not going to get 155+ games out of each of them.  If they have to give them rest anyways, why not be proactive about it and bolster the defense at the same time?

Photo's Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons: Thomson20192(Upton), Keith Allison(Kemp, Cashner)

Current Oakland A's come from Boston, Future A's from San Diego

The A’s and Red Sox Love the Same Talent, and that Love is Spreading

The Oakland Athletics are a well-run ballclub.

They’ve been an A.L West force for three consecutive seasons now, which is no small task given that the competition is only getting tougher.

But that story isn’t new; General Manager Billy Beane has been behind the 8-ball in that way for his entire tenure.  The guys around him have been making big, expensive, and splashy moves for the more than fifteen years that Beane has had to do “more with less”.

Evan Longoria, 2008

But that story isn’t new, either.  That Beane earns his keep within the A’s front office has been well documented.  When Brad Pitt is lighting it up on the silver screen with your portrayal, you’ve probably done something right (I mean, really, the guy only ever plays the hero).  But there seems to be a common misconception that the crafty GM employs the same modus operandi as the similarly tight-budgeted Tampa Bay Rays, drafting and grooming their young club largely from their own farm (and trading those players away when they become too expensive, in order to restock said farm system).  Nor has he generally extended young and unproven players to high risk, high reward contracts the way that the Tampa front office has, with guys as recently as Chris Archer (signed to a 6 yrs/$25.5 extension this season despite having five years of team control remaining and only one full season under his belt) or face of the franchise Evan Longoria (6 yrs/$17.5M during his rookie year in ’08, later tacking on another 10yrs/$100M in ‘12).  Beane’s current 25 man roster, as of the end of the 2014 season, holds just two players that the Oakland A’s signed out of the draft.

That the A’s have been able to find so much success this year without having spent big money to sign proven and veteran free agents or draft their own top talent is remarkable, and only exemplifies Beane’s ability to adapt and find new ways to win.  That trades have been his method of constructing this roster has been no secret, but when breaking down the current 25 man, one comes to find a common thread among quite a few players: Boston Red Sox find a way onto this team (for more on the history, check out last week’s series on the great players that have played for both franchises starting here).

Coco Crisp, 2012

As it currently stands, 6 of the 25 guys on Oakland’s roster have spent time in the Boston organization, two of which coming over as recently as the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline.  What’s even more interesting is that these are some of the cornerstone players on the 2014, iteration of the team (and even the ’12 and ’13 A’s).

Coco Crisp, CF

Josh Reddick, RF

Jed Lowrie, SS

Brandon Moss, 1B

Jon Lester, SP

Johhny Gomes, OF

Guys that spent a significant amount of time in Beantown constitute nearly 25% of the everyday roster.  I believe that both of these front offices have similar philosophies when it comes to player evaluation, but at the end of the day, Boston doesn’t need to rely on these guys to step up at some point, or be platooned in just the right way, as Beane and Bob Melvin have done so right recently.  Boston can afford to sign a solid yet older Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, or Stephen Drew (a guy that only further proves that these two teams enjoy building similar rosters, as Drew left Oakland for Boston following the ’12 season).  

It’s not surprising that many of the newer and younger faces among General Managers have attempted to build a system similar to Beane’s; with a “I can do more with less money” sales pitch, many front offices have given these executives a shot.  What’s interesting is that Beane has noticed as well, and many organizations seem to be a favorite of his to trade with, as they employ a similar view in talent evaluation.  Even Michael Lewis eludes to as much in his ever popular Moneyball in regards to a young Theo Epstien being an admirer of Beane’s tactics.

Eric Sogard, 2013

Just as many of the Athletic’s deals for former Boston players are now paving the way to sustained success for Oakland, so too may their deals with San Diego be laying a foundation for winning seasons.  As it stands, the A’s hold 6 players on their 40 man roster that were acquired from the Padres or came up through their organization, a team that Josh Byrnes, another young face among front office executives, ran as GM until being fired late last June.  And Byrnes just happened to be part of Epstien’s up and coming front office regime in the early 2000s.

Eric Sogard, 2B, SS (25 man roster)

Luke Gregerson, RP (25 man roster)

Evan Scribner, RP (25 man roster)

Kyle Blanks, 1B (40 man roster)

Nate Freiman, 1B (40 man roster)

Andy Parrino, UTI (25 man roster)

Most of these guys have only served in a limited amount of time with the A’s so far, aside from Sogard and Gregerson, who have been solid contributors at 2^nd and in the 8^th inning, respectively.  Most of them seemed to have been given up on by their former team, much as a majority of their Boston counterparts.  I expect to see a roster laden with former Padres in the next season or two, if Beane’s trade strategies and roster construction methods continue.

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Longoria, Crisp, Sogard)