Royals Need to Look No Further than Across the Dugout for Where to Go Next

The San Francisco Giants May Be the Best Club for the Royals to Emulate to Sustain Success

This World Series may seem like a David and Goliath type story, with Kansas City clearly the little boy with a sling.  But it wasn’t all that long ago that the same could have been said of the Giants.  Going into the 2010 season, the Giants were hardly the favorites to win it all (granted, the ones that are usually favored don’t seem to ever win, let alone make it to the WS).  But after taking the best of 5 series against the Braves in 4 (with the help of Brooks Conrad) and then taking down a heavily favored Phillies team in 6 games, the Giants found themselves on the biggest stage in baseball.

Fast forward four seasons later, and the Royals have streaked themselves into the same situation.  They took down favored team after favored team to earn a World Series appearance that was 29 years in the making.  And they did it by strongly outperforming their payroll, just like the Giants did in 2010.

When I claim that they outperformed their payroll, I’m basing this off of their team’s value calculated by WAR of all player’s that were on the big league roster against what they spent on payroll.  For instance, Kansas City compiled 41.4 WAR this season; with 1 WAR currently being worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $5.5M, going by FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, this Royals team would be worth $227.7M.  That’s a pretty high figure for a team that only spent $91.2M on its payroll this season.  The differential between what the front office spent and what they were able to field was a figure of $136.5M.  That’s a clear indicator that the Royals payroll has to go up if they’re hoping for sustained success, what with their cost controlled talent demanding bigger pay days in the very near future.

As I previously mentioned, the Giants were in a similar state as KC is now in terms of low payroll versus high value.  While sporting a $97M payroll in ’10, they fielded a club worth $179M.  That’s a differential of $82M, which is actually quite a bit lower than Kansas City’s 2014 ball club.

But that a team is able to break into the postseason for the first time after a rebuild sporting an incredibly talented team at a low cost is nothing new.  Generally, that’s the formula that a lot of clubs attempt.  You only need to look back to that very same 2010 season and look at the Texas Rangers, who despite only spending $58.5M(!) that year, they fielded a team worth $168.4M, good for a differential of $109.9M.  Of course, having a roster consisting of players in their prime years before they hit free agency is generally what every GM not named Rubén Amaro Jr. tries to do.  Ideally your differential is always going to be high; it means that you won more negations with player’s agents than you lost.

 

What the Rangers and Giants did after that season differed slightly philosophically, but both have continued to sustain success by increasing payroll.  I don’t see the Royals taking the Rangers route after their AL Championship (and possible WS) winning season by becoming big players in the free agent market; KC will probably continue playing their “small market card” and look to be a lean and efficiently run club.  I can, however, see them attempting to emulate what the Giants did they ended their World Series drought.  Lock up the core that got them there and continue to use a deep farm system to acquire impact players at the Major League level.

Lock up the Core

The Giants front office has locked up just about every key player in their World Series run’s (and in some cases, to a fault), which has allowed them to continuously make runs into the postseason.  Locking up Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Madison Bumgarner, and to a much lesser extent, Angel Pagan, has set them up at many key positions in the future.  Of course, Kansas City has already done much of the same with some of their key cogs by guaranteeing Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Alcides Escobar all play together on modest salaries through at least 2016.  They’ll need to evaluate where Hosmer, Cain, Ventura, and others fit in soon if they hope to keep a relatively cheap core together.  Generally speaking though, this has been something that GM Dayton Moore has excelled at since his time in Kansas City, and is probably already better at than Sabean.

Acquire High Impact Players on the Trade Front

Hunter Pence, the Giant's Big '12 Trade Acquisition

The Giants have acquired a big piece at the deadline every year except ’13 since their first World Series title in the Bay.  In ’11 it was Carlos Beltran, who was on fire in the 44 games that he played with SF.  In 2012, Sabean brought over Hunter Pence, and despite his initial struggles, still promised another year of play before hitting free agency.  This year, Sabean traded for Jake Peavy, and since coming over to the Bay Peavy has excelled.  It’s a tactic that Dayton Moore has already proved the Royals can pull off when they acquired James Shields and Wade Davis leading up to the 2013 season.  For a team that will probably continue to be reluctant to spend big free agent money, this could figure to be the best way to get high impact players for a team with such a deep farm system.

Make Good Mid-Tier Free Agent Signings

The Giants signed Aubrey Huff to a $3M deal going into the 2010 season and it paid off wonderfully.  Their signing of Tim Hudson to a 2 yrs/$23M deal has so far looked to be pretty good as well.  Those are the types of signings that Dayton Moore will need to look for if he hopes to keep his team continuously in contention.  The 4 yrs/$32M deal that he signed Jason Vargas to indicates at least a willingness to go after the players that the Royals feel are a good fit, and that’s a trend that needs to continue with short term veteran players.

Avoid Sentimentality

The biggest knock against Brian Sabean for me is that he succumbs to sentimentality a lot.  You need look no further than the Marco Scutaro extension at 3 yrs/$20M (his age 37-39 seasons) or the two year deal he inked Tim Lincecum to for $35M.  And that was after two abysmal seasons.  If the Royals win the World Series (heck, even if they don’t), Moore will need to be careful not to give too large of paydays to the guys that got them there.  Specifically the ones with their best days behind them, as is probably the case with James Shields.  The annual salary for Shields is money that the Royals could probably use on 2-3 different solid pieces.

The Royals seem to be on the precipice of a large window of contention.  If they want to increase payroll, of course.

Photo's Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons: Rob Shenk (Pence)

The Boston Athletics: Part Two

By Jacob Kelly

“The Greatest of All Time”… and Some Other Guys (‘80s-‘90s)

Tonight we take a look at three of the guys that helped define the second era of great baseball in Oakland, particularly the three back to back pennant winning years of '88 to '90 (although one of yesterday's guys, Carney Lansford, can just as easily slip in with this group as well).  In my mind this is the "Rickey" era for the A's, but there are some great pieces of Red Sox history here too, particularly when it comes to that other Henderson guy that played for both teams and his postseason heroics.  The fact that two of the players below made the Hall of Fame makes this a short but sweet list.  Let's get started.

Outfield: Rickey Henderson

He’s the greatest of all time!  Well… except when he was in a Red Sox uniform, which was really a blip on the radar of his massive career, but one that makes him eligible for this team.  Rickey played 72 games in Boston in 2002, his second to last season in the big leagues, hitting just .223/.369/.352.  That Henderson managed an OPS over .700 in his age 43 season is nothing short of impressive, despite the numbers not being up to the high standards he set earlier in his career.  He also hit a career milestone in stolen bases that year, swiping his 1,400^th bag of his career.  But it’s his credentials from his time in Oakland, the team he made his Major League debut with, that make him the best outfielder on this team.  Rickey spent parts of 14 seasons with the Athletics (he was thrice involved in trades with Oakland; twice away from them and once to them), winning the MVP award with them in 1989, three straight pennants (’88-’90), setting the single season stolen base record in ’82 (130 SB), and 867 career stolen bases there.  Despite being known primarily for his speed, he even slugged 297 homers.  Yeah, you could say he could play some baseball.

Outfield: Dave Henderson

“I hang out when the clock’s ticking out,” Henderson was once quoted as saying by the Boston Globe, in reference to his absolutely torrid play in postseason games.  While he was a very solid regular season contributor early in his career with Seattle, “Hendu” became known for his hot October bat after being acquired by Boston in the Summer of ’86.  In the World Series now more famous for the “Buckner Play” than anything else, Henderson raked, hitting .400/.448/.760 across 29 PA.  But before The Series, he had a big impact on the preceding ALCS; with Boston down to their last strike and facing elimination down 3-1 in the series, Henderson knocked a game tying solo shot to send it into extras.  His postseason heroics would continue in his time with the Athletics after signing with them through free agency in ‘87, and by the end of his career he’d hit .298/.376/.570 with 7 HRs and 20 RBI in October.  He’d play for 3 straight AL Champion Athletics’ squads from ’88-’90, helping them to win it all in the Bay Series in ’89.  In a strange twist, Hendu barely missed out on playing in 5 straight postseasons when he reported a day late to the Giants after being traded away by Boston in 1987.  He was ineligible for the postseason roster, as the deal wasn’t completed before the August 31^st trade waiver deadline.  Aside from his postseason heroics, Henderson managed a respectable .258/.320/.436 line with 197 long balls and some very strong center field defense (a 3.4 career dWAR, per baseball-reference).

Starting Pitcher/ Closer: Dennis Eckersley

Such suave.  So wow.

So I’m stretching the rules a bit here, but they’re my own rules… so whatever.  Eckersley really had two careers, one of which was very solid and what most guys would dream of having, and the other was simply dominant.  The first half of Eckersley’s MLB journey started with his debut in 1975 with Cleveland as a starting pitcher, and he came over to Boston in ’78 where he would spend 6 and a half seasons (and later close out his career there in ’98 as a part of their bullpen).  He’d make one All-Star appearance with the Red Sox in ’82, and finish 4^th and 7^th in the Cy Young voting in ’78 and ’79, respectively.  He totaled 2,496IP as a starter, notching 1,627 strikeouts, throwing 20 shutouts and posting an ERA of 3.67 in his time with the Indians, Red Sox, and Cubs.  But in the offseason of ’86-’87, when “Eck” was traded to Oakland, his career would take a different course. 

At first things were the same, briefly.  He started his first two games of the season for the A’s, but wasn’t very effective.  Then the Athletics’ closer, Jay Howell, hit the DL, and Hall of Fame Manager Tony La Russa moved Eckersley to the ‘pen where he would become a 9^th inning specialist.  Prior to La Russa’s years managing in Oakland, the “closer”, “fireman”, or general saves guy would pitch two and sometimes three innings to finish out a game, but he had a new strategy that would catch on like wildfire around the MLB.  It allowed Eckersley to stay fresh from appearance to appearance, and as La Russa put it: “we had a real good club, so we knew that we'd be ahead a large number of games every week, trying to hold leads and getting the win to the clubhouse. That's a lot of work for somebody throwing more than one inning.” Eck ended up with 390 career saves (good for 6^th all time), 320 of which came in his nine full seasons with the A’s.  He became and still is one of three relief pitchers to ever win both an MVP and a Cy Young award in the same year (’92), won a World Series (’89) and made 4 All-Star appearances in his time in the East Bay.  Eckersley made sure that he’d be remembered for more than his giving up a dramatic walk off homerun to Kirk Gibson in the 1988 World Series.  

Check back tomorrow night when we move into the New Millennium (does anyone say that anymore?).

Photo Credits: BaseballBacks (Rickey Henderson jersey) and  Rubenstein (Dennis Eckersley)

Can Alejandro De Aza be this Postseason's Cody Ross?

By Jacob Kelly

Going into 2010, few would have pegged Cody Ross as being a candidate for a postseason hero.  Of course, few would have pegged the Giants to be serious World Series contenders going into the 2010 season.  So the amount of people on Earth that could have told you that Cody Ross would do this (apparently Doc Halladay spends all his free time removing GIFs of Ross going yard off of him, as it was the only one left in the world) against the Phillies that year for the Giants and lead them to their first pennant in 8 years… well, whatever pocket of baseball gurus they are, they aren’t to be trifled with.  That’s some powerful stuff.

Cody Ross, 2011

Every year, teams hope to get lucky with a late August pickup for the stretch drive.  The Giants had right fielder Cody Ross, who hit .288/.354/.466 with 3 HR and 7 RBI over the last 33 games of the year.  He then went nuts (particularly in the NLCS against Roy Halladay) when he hit a combined .294/.390/.686 over all three October series.  And while corner outfielder Alejandro De Aza doesn’t profile quite like Cody Ross (he brings much more of a power/speed combo, whereas Ross was more straight power, but more on that in a bit), he may be the Orioles X-factor to playing deep in the postseason.

Since coming over from the White Sox, De Aza has hit .327/.377/.612 with 3 Triples, 2HR, 9 RBI, and 2 SB.  The counting stats are great, but the rate states are from a very small sample size, as that production has come over the span of just 12 games.  You can definitely expect the playing time for De Aza to keep coming in with numbers like that, however, not to mention the loss of Chris Davis due to suspension.

Alejandro De Aza, 2014

Both players were coming off of their worst OPS+ in 4 years with their former clubs; Ross was sporting a 91 with Florida after having averaged 115 the three previous years, whereas De Aza was carrying an 88 with Chicago after having averaged 106 from ’11 to ’13.  They also share a similar age at the time of the trade; Ross was 29 and some change when he came over to the Giants, while De Aza is just barely north of 30.  They both had a similar amount of Major League experience, with Ross having played in 603 games, De Aza in 546.  The point being made here is: both outfielders had and have similar career trajectories.  

Given the similarities between who the outfielders are and were, De Aza has a number of factors playing in his favor that could help him actually eclipse Ross’s production in 2010; Alejandro is joining a much deeper lineup than Ross did, and that should give him a lot more RBI, SB, and Run scoring opportunities; he’ll get to play quite a few games in power hitter friendly Camden Yards, depending on how far his teams pushes into the postseason, as opposed to the cavernous A&T Park; Alejandro De Aza has a far superior Power-Speed Number to what Cody Ross had coming into postseason play over the course of their respective careers.

The last point is what I believe to be the key to De Aza’s chances at taking home some serious hardware in the postseason.  For those that aren’t familiar, a player’s Power-Speed Number is the harmonic mean of their homerun and stolen base totals, as developed by Bill James.  The Baltimore outfielder has sported a far better PSN than Ross over both players three years leading up to being dealt; De Aza compiled a 39.5 over the span of ’11 to ’13, while Ross checked in at 21.2 from ’07 to ’09.  And while a player’s PSN doesn’t take into account how frequently they make outs (for that, you would want to see Total Average), so much of postseason success is about catching lighting in a bottle.  Alejandro De Aza has all the tools and makeup of a guy that could be lightning.  Over that span of 12 games with the Orioles?  De Aza has already racked up a PSN of 2.0.  Ross totaled 0.0 for the Giants down the stretch.  Maybe Baltimore took stock in lightning rods last month before pulling the trigger on Alejandro.

Images credit:  SD Dirk (Cody Ross) and Dennis Heller (Alejandro De Aza)