Determining the Value of Three True Outcome Players

Or

How Much are Home Runs Worth?

Russel "the Muscle"...

Every once in a while, and perhaps increasingly more so in this decade where runs scored are on the decline, a guy makes a career out of just one traditional tool: power.  These players are more accurately known as the three true outcome players.  It’s not a very long list of guys that make a career out of this, either; trust me, I checked.  You can count on one hand the number of guys that have made a (relatively) substantial living over the past fifteen years off of just hitting the long ball and taking walks.  So I figured it might be fun to see how much the home run is worth, at least from 2000-2014, in terms of a dollar/dinger ratio.

I’m going to preface the rest of this blog post with two points.  First, take this article with a grain of salt.  It’s supposed to be fun.  I think it would be interesting to see how much home runs were worth to front offices by digging into free agent contracts and extensions of players whose value hinges mostly on putting the ball in the seats, but this method ain’t it.  Second, this whole thing was inspired by seeing Russel Branyan’s face pop up on my Twitter feed.  So that’s usually a good indicator of a half-brained idea.

Half Brained Idea

First I decided to narrow down the field to the past 15 seasons, for a few reasons.  One was because I wanted player’s salaries to all be relatively similar.  Another was that, even though the early 2000s were still a booming time for giant men with power strokes, the later part of the decade and a half in which I’m focusing on would feature a lot of the guys that made their debuts in the early part of the century.  Therefore, their peak years were a bit closer the present and recent past. 

My other two criterion were that they had to truly be one tool players that hit below league average for those years (.262/.330/.415 being the average slash line from '00-'14) and that they needed to have at least 150 home runs over the past 15 seasons.  That would mean that they’d need to average at least 10 homers per season if they were to play all of those years (math!).

Of these five 3TO players, Dunn, Pena, and Branyan are the trifecta of one tool goodness.  Not only have they graded poorly defensively at first, which is generally considered an easy position to play (not by me, but by people much more athletically gifted than me) but they've never consistently hit for a decent average.  Burnitz had the benefit of playing the outfield for his entire career, and so his bat had a lot more value in that he wasn't clogging up first or DH.  He also didn't strike out anywhere near as much as the other sluggers on this list, so putting him on here may be a bit of a stretch.  But he definitely wasn't paid for his defense or ability to hit for average.  Reynolds, meanwhile,  has at least graded as league average at first in his past two seasons.

"You ain't seen Dallas Buyers Club!?"

These are all guys that front offices spent varying amounts of millions in USD to put the ball in the seats, take a walk, or strikeout.  The average value per HR among them?  $152,527.286.  Granted, it's a small sample size, but that's a lot of money to do three things.  I mean, it's one of the hardest things on the planet to do, but still.

Determining Value

So what's the key difference between the two outliers in this group?  Adam Dunn made a killing over the course of his career by consistently hitting home runs, while Branyan's blasts netted him a relatively modest sum.  It's nothing earth shattering to say that health and consistency were two of the main factors when it came time for these guys to put pen to paper and sign.

After his rookie season, Dunn never missed more than 122 games in a year, and that didn't come until his 11th season.  Leading up to his big free agent contract following the 2010 campaign, Dunn had averaged 35 home runs a season.  By comparison, Branyan's career high in games played came in '02 when he played in 134 (he wouldn't crack 100 games played again until the '09 season).  This was a guy that could hurt himself trying to open the curtains in his hotel room.

Of course, 3TO players also get paid for their on base skills, and I think that comes through from the data above.  They're all in the same general ballpark in terms of OBP other than Dunn, and he clearly separated himself from the pack in terms of pay-scale.

The Future of 3TO Players

Power swing of the future.

Mark Reynolds and Carlos Pena will keep getting opportunities to stick on rosters just because of their sheer power and strong HR/FB rates.  It's kind of like catching lighting in a bottle, if the front office can stomach the strikeouts.  But the next wave of three true outcome players are already on the rise; look no further than what's going on in baseball's western divisions.  Mark Trumbo has already knocked out over 100 HR in his first four seasons while striking out over 27% of the time.  His walks appear to be on the rise, taking free passes 54 times in '13 and 28 last season over just 88 games.  Over in Houston, Chris Carter has put up seasons of 29 and 37 home runs in '13 and '14, respectively.  He's taking his walks (126 over his last 1157 PA) and striking out a ton (38.9% of his ABs) since arriving with the Astros.  It will be interesting to see what teams are willing to pay 3TO players for their services through extensions and free agency in an offensively starved era.

With that, here's Dunn doin' his thang via a Vine courtesy of the guys at Cespedes Family BBQ:

This is what $1,951,428.80 looks like. #1TooltoRuleThemAll #Dingers #BigDonkey @CespedesBBQ https://t.co/sB26xKqcmW
— Jacob Kelly (@screwballblog) February 11, 2015

Sound off in the comments below if you think I missed any three true outcome players of the past 15 years!

Photos courtesy of Keith Allison (Branyan, Dunn) and Not That Bob James (Trumbo)

Can Alejandro De Aza be this Postseason's Cody Ross?

By Jacob Kelly

Going into 2010, few would have pegged Cody Ross as being a candidate for a postseason hero.  Of course, few would have pegged the Giants to be serious World Series contenders going into the 2010 season.  So the amount of people on Earth that could have told you that Cody Ross would do this (apparently Doc Halladay spends all his free time removing GIFs of Ross going yard off of him, as it was the only one left in the world) against the Phillies that year for the Giants and lead them to their first pennant in 8 years… well, whatever pocket of baseball gurus they are, they aren’t to be trifled with.  That’s some powerful stuff.

Cody Ross, 2011

Every year, teams hope to get lucky with a late August pickup for the stretch drive.  The Giants had right fielder Cody Ross, who hit .288/.354/.466 with 3 HR and 7 RBI over the last 33 games of the year.  He then went nuts (particularly in the NLCS against Roy Halladay) when he hit a combined .294/.390/.686 over all three October series.  And while corner outfielder Alejandro De Aza doesn’t profile quite like Cody Ross (he brings much more of a power/speed combo, whereas Ross was more straight power, but more on that in a bit), he may be the Orioles X-factor to playing deep in the postseason.

Since coming over from the White Sox, De Aza has hit .327/.377/.612 with 3 Triples, 2HR, 9 RBI, and 2 SB.  The counting stats are great, but the rate states are from a very small sample size, as that production has come over the span of just 12 games.  You can definitely expect the playing time for De Aza to keep coming in with numbers like that, however, not to mention the loss of Chris Davis due to suspension.

Alejandro De Aza, 2014

Both players were coming off of their worst OPS+ in 4 years with their former clubs; Ross was sporting a 91 with Florida after having averaged 115 the three previous years, whereas De Aza was carrying an 88 with Chicago after having averaged 106 from ’11 to ’13.  They also share a similar age at the time of the trade; Ross was 29 and some change when he came over to the Giants, while De Aza is just barely north of 30.  They both had a similar amount of Major League experience, with Ross having played in 603 games, De Aza in 546.  The point being made here is: both outfielders had and have similar career trajectories.  

Given the similarities between who the outfielders are and were, De Aza has a number of factors playing in his favor that could help him actually eclipse Ross’s production in 2010; Alejandro is joining a much deeper lineup than Ross did, and that should give him a lot more RBI, SB, and Run scoring opportunities; he’ll get to play quite a few games in power hitter friendly Camden Yards, depending on how far his teams pushes into the postseason, as opposed to the cavernous A&T Park; Alejandro De Aza has a far superior Power-Speed Number to what Cody Ross had coming into postseason play over the course of their respective careers.

The last point is what I believe to be the key to De Aza’s chances at taking home some serious hardware in the postseason.  For those that aren’t familiar, a player’s Power-Speed Number is the harmonic mean of their homerun and stolen base totals, as developed by Bill James.  The Baltimore outfielder has sported a far better PSN than Ross over both players three years leading up to being dealt; De Aza compiled a 39.5 over the span of ’11 to ’13, while Ross checked in at 21.2 from ’07 to ’09.  And while a player’s PSN doesn’t take into account how frequently they make outs (for that, you would want to see Total Average), so much of postseason success is about catching lighting in a bottle.  Alejandro De Aza has all the tools and makeup of a guy that could be lightning.  Over that span of 12 games with the Orioles?  De Aza has already racked up a PSN of 2.0.  Ross totaled 0.0 for the Giants down the stretch.  Maybe Baltimore took stock in lightning rods last month before pulling the trigger on Alejandro.

Images credit:  SD Dirk (Cody Ross) and Dennis Heller (Alejandro De Aza)

The Chicago White Sox Have Core, Clubhouse Culture to Compete in 2015

By Jacob Kelly,

If the White Sox are in a rebuild mode, don’t expect it to last much longer. 

After nearly losing 100 games last season (63-99), the big league club already sports a better record than last year at 64-79.  Chris Sale has emerged as one of the top 2 left handed pitchers in the game (I mean when you can do this, you're at least better than Ryan Rowland-Smith), Jose Abreu is an absolute monster of a first basemen after never even having seen an MLB pitch before this season, and the ballclub is getting very solid overall production from their guys all the way up the middle.

General Manager Rick Hahn is in a very enviable position compared to other GMs tasked with rebuilding.  Having taken over the position in late October of 2012, Hahn already has a lot of young, solid Major League talent with which to augment.  Couple that with just $46M committed to 2015’s payroll before arbitration, and it’s no wonder that many are pointing towards the Southsiders as major players in the AL Central and Wildcard spots.  And as Scott Merkin of MLB.com writes, Hahn is preparing himself for a very busy offseason in the coming weeks.

I won’t break down the team’s strengths and weaknesses, as Jonah Keri of Grantland already did a good job covering where the team will look for improvements.  Instead, I’m going to take a look at some intangibles for a mostly young and playoff inexperienced ball club, and how the Pale Hose have already started to create a winning culture and cohesive unit.

Past and Current Leaders

Konerko's influence could spread beyond 2014

As evidenced by yesterday’s gesture from pitchers John Danks and Chris Sale, Adam Dunn was a very popular teammate.  As Rick Hahn said: “for all the ups and downs he had over the four years, Dunner was obviously outstanding in the clubhouse… and an important piece in sort of creating the right environment and what we wanted here.”  For many White Sox fans, Dunn clearly did not live up to expectations offensively; despite sporting a good amount of power over his Chicago years, he posted some of the highest strikeout totals in MLB history, whiffing 222 times in 2012, one shy of the all-time record.  But those abysmal strikeout rates clearly didn’t keep him from contributing off the field.

But no one better embodies the White Sox culture than team captain Paul Konerko, who by all accounts is one of the best teammates a guy can have.  He’s such a good teammate, that he recommended the '05 ALCS MVP he won be split four ways between the White Sox starting pitchers that threw complete games in the series.  Paul Konerko is a proven winner in both the regular and post seasons, and a leader both on the field and in the clubhouse.  Former GM and current Executive Vice President Kenny Williams even once considered Konerko to act as a player-manager when Williams was searching for someone to fill the hole of Chicago’s skipper.

Both Major League veterans have helped to create and shape the culture that Hahn will look to augment going into 2015, and filling the vacancies on the 25 man won’t be as easy as plopping good players into them; they’ll need to fit in with the club’s identity.

Tomorrow’s Leaders

With a relatively inexperienced postseason club as it stands going into next year, Chicago may look for some veteran help in the free agent market this offseason.  Of the players currently on their roster that could be around next year, only shortstop Alexei Ramirez, starting pitcher John Danks, extreme part time outfielder Avisail Garcia, and relief pitcher Ronald Belisario have ever played baseball in October.  Of the four, only Ramirez and Danks are seemingly locks to be around next season.

This doesn’t preclude a younger, more inexperienced player stepping up into a leadership role between now and the stretch drive of 2015, and nor does it mean that Chicago is incapable of reaching October baseball with a team of postseason virgins; but it does present the White Sox with an interesting factor to consider when looking at this offseason’s free agency class.

James Shields could fit the role of both pitching staff leader and front of the rotation arm.

By all accounts, “Big Game” James Shields has been a leader for both young ballclubs that he’s pitched for.  When the Rays were trying to punch their first ticket to the playoffs, it was Shields that came up big for the team every fifth day he took the ball.  And now, with a very young and exciting Kansas City team, he’s doing it again.  Not only is he pitching excelentlly in a pennant race for a team not used to doing so, he’s having a mentoring effect on the rest of the staff.  As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes in his article on the intangibles of the Shields trade with Tampa Bay: “Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy are each having promising seasons, and Royals officials believe there is at least an indirect cause-and-effect with Shields’ presence.  Duffy, in particular, says he’s learned from Shields the value of embracing his natural emotion on the mound instead of fighting it.  That’s a lesson he tries to use every time he pitches.”

Of course, Shields would take a major financial commitment to land in free agency; Kansas City is not thought to be able to retain his services due to payroll constraints, and will likely extend him a qualifying offer at the end of the year.  The White Sox may be in a strong position to make a play for him if their record hovers around where it currently stands; going into today’s game (September 9^th), the southsiders hold the 8^th worst record in the Majors, and would not need to surrender a top draft pick if they were successful in signing Shields.  “Big Game James” would also give the team a much needed right hander to insert between lefties Sale and Jose Quintana.  Ultimately, Chicago would need to be comfortable with shelling out a 4 or 5 year contract to a 33 year old pitcher.  But for a hurler that doesn’t rely on a power fastball to get hitters out, he could be a lower-risk guy than someone of Max Scherzer’s ilk.

Of course, Shields isn’t a fix all to a club that will likely finish in the bottom third of the MLB standings, but he could be a big first step.  With a few other cheaper, good signings like the ones Jonha Keri lists in his article, and some stronger corner outfield defense that could help out the entire pitching staff, the AL side of Chicago baseball could be incredibly fun to watch in 2015.

Photo credit:  Keith Allison