At first glance,
J.J. Hardy should be in line for a pretty
large multiyear contract this offseason: a power hitting SS with Gold Glove
credentials (and deservedly so) should be most team’s dream with money to spend
and a hole to fill.
Sure, he comes with
cause for concern when it comes to his back, having battled lower back spasms
off and on this year, but it hasn’t prevented him from being worth 3.7 wins
above replacement level this season.
 |
| J.J. Hardy, 2014 |
But Hardy finds himself in an interesting position with just
under a month left to play in his age 32 season.
Despite his reputation for putting balls into
the seats (averaging 25.667 homers per season in his three Baltimore years
leading up the 2014 campaign), he’s only hit 9 on the year thus far.
The back spasms could be to blame, making it
harder for Hardy to clear his hips as he gets the bat head through the
zone.
But there’s no evidence to suggest
that the lingering issue is serious, and the offseason of rest may be all he
needs to be back at full power in 2015.
To
be fair, Hardy is making up for lost time in a big way.
After having not homered even once this
season through June 20
th, he’s hit .272/.317/.434 since.
That’s opposed to a triple slash line of
.288/.317/.354 prior.
With just over 3
weeks left to play, he still has a chance at 15 dingers if he stays hot.
And that uptick in power comes with the
always strong defense.
Could he land
something in the range of a 5 year, $70M deal?
I think Hardy is worth the big multiyear deal to a lot of teams,
and here’s why.
At age 32, many people would shy away from giving a
shortstop known for strong defense a long contract, unless they thought they
could shift him to a different position down the road and still get value from
him.
Not known so much for his range but
for making the plays that he
should
make, and personally from watching him make the plays when they matter, the
Orioles’ shortstop is very steady.
Per
Fangraphs’
Inside Edge defensive rating, which judges how hard a play is to
make as rated by scouts, Hardy has made 96.7% of the “routine chance” plays,
76.2% of “likely chance” plays, 50% of “even chance” plays, 30% of the
“unlikely chance” plays, and 0.0% of the “remote chance” plays;
compare this to
Braves wunderkind
Andrelton Simmons at short who has made 98.6% “routine”,
87.0% “likely”, 84.6% “even”, 53.8% “unlikely”, and 13.0% “remote”.
At 32, Hardy does not have the young and
incredibly athletic ability of his counterpart Simmons to take hits away from
the opposition, but he makes up for this with preparation and positioning prior
to the pitch and a strong arm.
That’s a
skill set that generally ages much more gracefully than a defender that earns
his reputation for an incredible range.
If a team was to dole out big money on an aging shortstop,
J.J. Hardy has to be one of the best bets for holding up over the life of the
contract, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Many teams with a hole at short will be
enticed by his power bat, even if he ends up coming off of a down year and not
capitalizing on the opportunity of playing half his games at Camden Yards. If Hardy even posts slightly below average
offensive numbers over the life of the deal, he’s going to be one less headache
for any GM and manager going into games every night. Let’s break down a few possible destinations
for the free agent to be and why they’re a fit.
Baltimore Orioles
This one’s pretty obvious, considering Hardy is comfortable
here, has put up strong numbers for three seasons going into 2014, has a good
working relationship with Manager Buck Showalter, and the ballpark dimensions
favor his right handed power bat.
Whether or not the front office will make the necessary adjustments in
their payroll to make it work, a reluctance that has seen them miss out on many
players before, remains to be seen.
There has been speculation as to whether
Manny Machado will play short (his
natural position coming up in the minors) if and when Hardy leaves, but with
his recent knee problems, it may be in Machado’s best interest to stick at
3B.
There’s definitely going to be a
need at Short come the offseason for the O’s, and probably and desire to stay
on both Hardy and management’s part.
New York Yankees
In a turn that would surprise absolutely no one, the Yankees
landing Hardy on a large multiyear deal makes a lot of sense for both
parties.
Hardy should have the starting
shortstop job going into the 2015 campaign with
Jeter retiring, and there will
even be a void at third sooner or later (perhaps sooner) once
A-Rod’s contract
is finally off the books.
This would
allow Hardy to slide over to the left side of the diamond if and when his days
of playing short seem numbered (although, as previously stated, I don’t think
this will be an issue, figuring that he won’t land more than a 5 year
deal).
New Yankee Stadium would actually
play better for Hardy’s power swing with smaller dimensions in in Left Field
down the line and all the way over to Left Center, as he predominately pulls
the ball when he hits it out.
Yet
another player into his mid-30s that could benefit from the “Yankee Stadium
power hitting fountain of youth”.
I
question whether the front office will sing the luxury tax song as it did most
of last offseason, only to wind up going on a spending spree.
If staying below that line is once again no
problem, I expect the Bombers to be serious suitors for Hardy.
Arizona Diamonbacks
And everyone would write the ol’ “you can go home again”
headline, just to throw it in Thomas Wolfe’s face once more.
After having gone to high school and been
drafted out of Tucson, Arizona, I’m willing to bet that Hardy probably grew up
following a pretty exciting new expansion team in the very early 2000s (he was
drafted in ’01, so I’m sure he was paying attention when they won their World
Series).
This would be a homecoming for
Hardy, and the desert air would be welcoming if he was looking to keep those
offensive numbers up.
This move makes
sense on the Diamondbacks’ part for a few reasons: first,
Didi Gregorious
hasn’t exactly wowed anyone at shortstop in parts of 2 seasons now; second,
this is a franchise that is looking to contend while it still has
Paul Goldschmidt in his prime, despite them being in a pretty tough division with
the big spending Dodgers and Giants; third, I wouldn’t be the least bit
surprised for La Russa to want to make an impact with his new
organization.
La Russa’s very familiar
with what the shortstop brings to the table after having managed the Cardinals
while Hardy was with the Brew Crew.
If
this front office decides to spend, and with a new GM possibly free to make
some changes, I see this as a very strong landing spot for Hardy.
The Dark Horse/Fringe
Teams
There are a few other cities that I could see Hardy signing
with depending on how things play out in the SS market (particularly with
Hanley Ramirez being an impending free agent).
The big spending Dodgers, if the aforementioned Han-Ram walks; the
Nationals, especially if they miss the World Series and feel that this is a
move that could push them over the top; and Cincinnati, if they feel that the
upgrade over
Zack Cozart is enough for them to get back into contention next
year in what currently is a parity driven NL Central.
Photo credit:
Keith Allison
