Competitive Balance Draft Picks and the Decentivization on Spending for Teams that Need Them

Assessing Competitive Balance Draft Pick Value, and How the System Needs to be Improved

There is, apparently,  an uneven playing field in Major League Baseball that needs balancing, and “new”-ish competitive balance picks in the draft can and/or will improve this.  Instead of basing the decision of which teams receive a balance pick on a team’s record (you know, that thing that actually indicates how well you competed that year against your peers), the picks are doled out via a lottery system to a pool of the ten bottom teams in terms of both market size and revenue (although a team's odds in the lottery, once they're in, is based on their win-loss record from the previous year).  I won’t get into how evidence shows that market size has little to no bearing on how well a team can make and spend money, especially in today’s world of revenue sharing, TV contracts (both local and national), and publicly funded stadiums.  Today’s massive global market is a big factor in every team being able to have a hand in the pot.  But I said I won’t focus on that issue right now.  Rather, I want to discuss whether competitive balance picks (which take place between rounds one and two, and again between three and four) have so far helped to create balance between teams that “can” spend and teams that “can’t”, and what the MLB can be doing better to help stimulate free agent spending league wide.

Back in late May of 2013, MLBTradeRumors writer Charlie Wilmoth wrote a post discussing the value of competitive balance picks, and how their worth may lie in smaller market and low revenue teams dealing away role players for these draft picks, or even having them included in a deal when they trade away a high impact player that they can no longer afford, need, etc.  Since the new collective bargaining agreement in 2012, there have been five deals that included a competitive balance pick changing hands before the July non-waiver trade deadline.  So far, the swaps that have involved balance picks have included both richer teams and poorer teams (based on revenue) being on the receiving end.  St. Louis and Detroit (ranked 5^th and 8^th in MLB in terms of revenue, respectively, per Forbes as of March, 2014) have both received balance picks in trades, the former getting a round B slot and the latter a round A slot.  The others include Houston (twice) and Miami (twice, one of which was a balance pick swap with Detroit).  Pittsburgh has been able to use one of theirs as buyers at the trade deadline, and Oakland got more value out of their round B pick by trading it away to Boston, a club that was looking a little farther past this season to be competitive (and Boston, of course, will probably never qualify to win one of these picks as their market size and revenue are both near the top of all MLB).  

Teams that Don't Get Involved in Big Free Agent Spending Have Even Less Incentive to do so

 

Because these picks appear to hold the value that both the MLB Commissioner’s Office and the clubs eligible for them had hoped, they seem to be working.  So why then, if the teams that are in need of these extra picks actually need them, are they taken away if that team spends money?  If the Colorado Rockies, for example, decide that they want to sign one or more impact players (guys that have received a qualifying offer from their former team), they would lose their 2015 round A competitive balance pick under the current collective bargaining agreement.  Going into the last three games of the season, the Rockies are a lock to have one of the 10 worst records in baseball, and therefore their first round pick is protected should they wish to sign a player that has been extended a QO.  Their round A pick, a mid-30 overall spot in the draft, however, would be forfeited.  What gives?  Are the Rockies suddenly a competitive team based on one signing, and are no longer in need of the handout?  Even if they sign the best free agent on the market this offseason, their team isn’t that drastically different.  So why are they being punished for opening the checkbook?  Their market size will remain the same, unless people begin to move to the Denver metropolitan area in some sort of mass exodus style from wherever they were just to watch Max Scherzer pitch in a Rockies uniform.  Their revenue could increase due to the signing, if the team were able to improve and the market that is there started coming out to more ballgames, but it could just as easily dip because of the $20M a year being eaten up by one player.  

Robinson Cano alone does not a competitive team make

It’s not just the drafted player that a given team would be forfeiting, but that draft slot’s signing bonus money, as well.  Of the $8.3M in draft pool money assigned to the Rockies for the 2014 amateur player draft, over $1.64M of it would have been lost if the Rockies had signed, say, 2^nd basemen Robinson Cano last offseason.  Does the upgrade that Cano offers over the Rockies current man at the keystone, DJ LeMahieu, make them so good that they need to be treated like their big spending rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers?  The Rockies would be 4.6 wins better than they currently are per Baseball-Reference’s calculation of both players’ WAR, which if rounded up, would make the Rockies 71-87 (and that’s after rounding up).  That makes them as good as the Chicago Cubs currently are.  But a signing like Cano could make them better when they are ready to compete, which could be as early as next season or the year after.  You don't sign a player to a multi-year deal solely as a win now move, but that is in effect the pressure the new collective bargaining agreement has put on small to mid-market teams.

Michael Bourn, 2013

For competitive balance picks to truly create a level playing field, assuming that the current one is uneven, they need to both be correctly doled out to teams in the first place, and they need to be protected.  That protection would need to continue even if they were traded to a big market, high revenue team such as the Yankees or Dodgers, so that the pick would retain its current high trade value.  The last thing that will create balance in the MLB is decentivizing teams that traditionally haven’t spent big on the free agent market from ever wanting to spend big on the free agent market, for fear of the loss of a draft pick and draft pool money.  In the event that a team isn't afraid to spend and forfeit one of those picks, like the Indians did going into 2013 by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, thereby forfeiting their Round B pick, MLB is effectively telling teams that they need to select their window or even year in which to compete.  Sacrifice a piece of your future for a chance at winning now.  That doesn't seem very balanced, especially compared to the teams that are willing to outspend their mistakes every year like the Yankees and Dodgers.

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Cano) and Erik Drost (Bourn)

Making the Case for J.J. Hardy in his First Free Agency Foray

At first glance, J.J. Hardy should be in line for a pretty large multiyear contract this offseason: a power hitting SS with Gold Glove credentials (and deservedly so) should be most team’s dream with money to spend and a hole to fill.  Sure, he comes with cause for concern when it comes to his back, having battled lower back spasms off and on this year, but it hasn’t prevented him from being worth 3.7 wins above replacement level this season.  

J.J. Hardy, 2014

But Hardy finds himself in an interesting position with just under a month left to play in his age 32 season.  Despite his reputation for putting balls into the seats (averaging 25.667 homers per season in his three Baltimore years leading up the 2014 campaign), he’s only hit 9 on the year thus far.  The back spasms could be to blame, making it harder for Hardy to clear his hips as he gets the bat head through the zone.  But there’s no evidence to suggest that the lingering issue is serious, and the offseason of rest may be all he needs to be back at full power in 2015.  To be fair, Hardy is making up for lost time in a big way.  After having not homered even once this season through June 20^th, he’s hit .272/.317/.434 since.  That’s opposed to a triple slash line of .288/.317/.354 prior.  With just over 3 weeks left to play, he still has a chance at 15 dingers if he stays hot.  And that uptick in power comes with the always strong defense.  Could he land something in the range of a 5 year, $70M deal?

I think Hardy is worth the big multiyear deal to a lot of teams, and here’s why.

At age 32, many people would shy away from giving a shortstop known for strong defense a long contract, unless they thought they could shift him to a different position down the road and still get value from him.  Not known so much for his range but for making the plays that he should make, and personally from watching him make the plays when they matter, the Orioles’ shortstop is very steady.  Per Fangraphs’ Inside Edge defensive rating, which judges how hard a play is to make as rated by scouts, Hardy has made 96.7% of the “routine chance” plays, 76.2% of “likely chance” plays, 50% of “even chance” plays, 30% of the “unlikely chance” plays, and 0.0% of the “remote chance” plays; compare this to Braves wunderkind Andrelton Simmons at short who has made 98.6% “routine”, 87.0% “likely”, 84.6% “even”, 53.8% “unlikely”, and 13.0% “remote”.  At 32, Hardy does not have the young and incredibly athletic ability of his counterpart Simmons to take hits away from the opposition, but he makes up for this with preparation and positioning prior to the pitch and a strong arm.  That’s a skill set that generally ages much more gracefully than a defender that earns his reputation for an incredible range.

If a team was to dole out big money on an aging shortstop, J.J. Hardy has to be one of the best bets for holding up over the life of the contract, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.  Many teams with a hole at short will be enticed by his power bat, even if he ends up coming off of a down year and not capitalizing on the opportunity of playing half his games at Camden Yards.  If Hardy even posts slightly below average offensive numbers over the life of the deal, he’s going to be one less headache for any GM and manager going into games every night.  Let’s break down a few possible destinations for the free agent to be and why they’re a fit.

Baltimore Orioles

This one’s pretty obvious, considering Hardy is comfortable here, has put up strong numbers for three seasons going into 2014, has a good working relationship with Manager Buck Showalter, and the ballpark dimensions favor his right handed power bat.  Whether or not the front office will make the necessary adjustments in their payroll to make it work, a reluctance that has seen them miss out on many players before, remains to be seen.  There has been speculation as to whether Manny Machado will play short (his natural position coming up in the minors) if and when Hardy leaves, but with his recent knee problems, it may be in Machado’s best interest to stick at 3B.  There’s definitely going to be a need at Short come the offseason for the O’s, and probably and desire to stay on both Hardy and management’s part.

New York Yankees

In a turn that would surprise absolutely no one, the Yankees landing Hardy on a large multiyear deal makes a lot of sense for both parties.  Hardy should have the starting shortstop job going into the 2015 campaign with Jeter retiring, and there will even be a void at third sooner or later (perhaps sooner) once A-Rod’s contract is finally off the books.  This would allow Hardy to slide over to the left side of the diamond if and when his days of playing short seem numbered (although, as previously stated, I don’t think this will be an issue, figuring that he won’t land more than a 5 year deal).  New Yankee Stadium would actually play better for Hardy’s power swing with smaller dimensions in in Left Field down the line and all the way over to Left Center, as he predominately pulls the ball when he hits it out.  Yet another player into his mid-30s that could benefit from the “Yankee Stadium power hitting fountain of youth”.  I question whether the front office will sing the luxury tax song as it did most of last offseason, only to wind up going on a spending spree.  If staying below that line is once again no problem, I expect the Bombers to be serious suitors for Hardy.

Arizona Diamonbacks

And everyone would write the ol’ “you can go home again” headline, just to throw it in Thomas Wolfe’s face once more.  After having gone to high school and been drafted out of Tucson, Arizona, I’m willing to bet that Hardy probably grew up following a pretty exciting new expansion team in the very early 2000s (he was drafted in ’01, so I’m sure he was paying attention when they won their World Series).  This would be a homecoming for Hardy, and the desert air would be welcoming if he was looking to keep those offensive numbers up.  This move makes sense on the Diamondbacks’ part for a few reasons: first, Didi Gregorious hasn’t exactly wowed anyone at shortstop in parts of 2 seasons now; second, this is a franchise that is looking to contend while it still has Paul Goldschmidt in his prime, despite them being in a pretty tough division with the big spending Dodgers and Giants; third, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised for La Russa to want to make an impact with his new organization.  La Russa’s very familiar with what the shortstop brings to the table after having managed the Cardinals while Hardy was with the Brew Crew.  If this front office decides to spend, and with a new GM possibly free to make some changes, I see this as a very strong landing spot for Hardy.

The Dark Horse/Fringe Teams

There are a few other cities that I could see Hardy signing with depending on how things play out in the SS market (particularly with Hanley Ramirez being an impending free agent).  The big spending Dodgers, if the aforementioned Han-Ram walks; the Nationals, especially if they miss the World Series and feel that this is a move that could push them over the top; and Cincinnati, if they feel that the upgrade over Zack Cozart is enough for them to get back into contention next year in what currently is a parity driven NL Central.

Photo credit: Keith Allison